000 FXUS63 KMKX 081643 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1043 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012 .UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES TODAY. IF ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS FEEL WARM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WI. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO IOWA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK NORTH 850 MB WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. WEAK 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE IS DRY SO AFTER LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS FAR SOUTHEAST ERODES...NO LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY NOON TIME. CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL REACH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WEST. DESPITE THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WE COULD STILL RADIATE OUT FAIRLY WELL TONIGHT. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MOS OVER MUCH OF THE CONSENSUS GRIDS. THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IF THE DRIER MODELS PAN OUT. LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER END OF MODELS WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER AND THE OVERALL MODEL COLD BIAS THIS WINTER. THUS EXPECTING MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END...WITH MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION NOT AS DEEP AS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS GENERALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BUMPED POPS UP NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS SHOWING DECENT CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT. CONSENSUS OF MODEL 1000-850 MB FLOW HAS ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND SFC TO 850 MB DELTA T VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20C. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KENOSHA SHOWING DECENT SATURATION...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6-7 KFT...SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH STILL EXPECTING THE WEEKEND TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY...WARMING TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS WITH LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MARINE... WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS A LARGE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WOULD CREATE HIGH WAVES FRIDAY...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV
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